Trump‘s impeachment odds during his first term by the House of Representatives spiked above 60% on Tuesday on prediction market PredictIt, up from 24% before whistleblower allegations surfaced on Sept. 18.
Trump warned on Thursday that there could be severe consequences if he was impeached,
“If they actually did this the markets would crash.”
Art Hogan, Market Strategist at National Securities Corp says,
“Markets do not crash because of impeachment, they crash because of recessions which are usually caused by a policy mistake.”
Hogan noted the recession of the early 70s had nothing to do with the Watergate scandal that forced Nixon to resign in ’74.
And likewise throughout the impeachment of Bill Clinton in ’98, the bull market continued. The only other impeachment, of Andrew Johnson, took place in 1868. As Hogan said,
“The market follows the economy, not who is in the White House.”
(Photo, Wikimedia Common, screen grab; via CNN)