Tag Archives: Polls
Some things just make me giggle. Last Sunday I was going over some newly released polling data and I noticed some interesting trends that didn’t seem to jibe with the narrative the press was pushing. So I posted a story about the polling data that showed despite all the negative press the Republicans were getting, President Obama’s approval rating remained moribund, and he continued to lose in hypothetical head-to-head matchups against Romney and Santorum (by the by, Santorum won last night’s Alabama & Mississippi primary while Romney won Hawaii and American Somoa).
And as often happens when I post stories on Obama, I had angry Obama supporters ranting in the comment section about it. The standard rants from Obama supporters usually range from complaints that I’m an idiot and I “don’t know dick about politics” to accusations that my views are somehow racist, one commenter even said my views made him want to vomit! Now, for the most part, I let ridiculous and unfounded accusations role off my back. It’s not worth the bother. I know the truth; I know who I am and what I’m about. Standing up and speaking out against anti-gay bigotry in all of its forms is not racism.
But on this particular occasion I really had to giggle at the comments ranting about my post. You see, a funny thing happened the day after I posted that report. Several news organizations began running stories about Obama’s plummeting approval rating and that the Republican candidates were still polling higher than he was – which was the exact thing I had written about in my post. And the Obama campaign was apparently so alarmed by the polling data that they decided to send out an email blast to millions of their supporters on Tuesday with the shocking news that “If the general election were held today, President Obama would lose to Mitt Romney — according to the latest poll from Washington Post-ABC News.” Hmmmm. That’s really odd. Does that mean the Obama campaign is staffed by idiots who really don’t know dick about politics? What were they thinking? Don’t they know that emailing their supporters this type of information will make them want to vomit? Could they be racists?! LOL! Or maybe, just maybe, my political instincts aren’t that far off the mark.
A few months back the Republicans seemed to have it in the bag. The president’s approval numbers were in the crapper and his constant “compromises” and cave-ins to the Republicans had many in the liberal base demoralized. All Republicans had to do was nominate Romney, keep talking about the economy, and keep Independents on their side – and the White House was theirs for the taking. But it appears that Christian Conservatives would rather rip the Republican party apart than see someone other than a fire-breathing Christian Conservative become their nominee. Add Rush Limbaugh and the media brouhaha into the mix and President Obama should be sitting pretty again despite his lackluster performance as president. But oddly enough, the polls seem to be telling a different narrative than the one the press seems to be pushing.
Rasmussen just released the results of their presidential tracking poll yesterday asking Americans their preference for President. Romney continues to beat Obama (48% to 42%) and an even bigger shocker is that Santorum also tops Obama, though just barely (45% to 44%). And before you decry Rasmussen as a Right-Wing poll, let’s look at the polls from Gallup (often considered the Democrat friendly polling site). Despite all the gifts the Republicans keep giving him, Obama’s approval rating remains under 50%. Obama only managed an average 45% approval for the month of February. And as Gallup points out: “The 50% approval mark is a crucial one for presidents in a re-election year. All incumbents who have been elected to a second term had a 50% or higher average approval rating by February of that year.” Up, down, around, and back again, this is one whacky election cycle. And, at least according to the polls, Americans aren’t really that thrilled with ANY of the presidential candidates – Democrat or Republican.
For some time now polling data has shown that Mitt Romney was the only Republican candidate that was competitive with President Obama in national polls. And one would think that the sustained attacks against him from Democrats as well as his fellow Republicans would have done serious damage to the Romney campaign by now. But a new national poll from CBS News shows that Romney has actually increased his lead and now has a slight advantage over Obama. And with all the talk of Santorum surging in the Iowa caucus one might think he would be more competitive against Obama in the polls as well, but he still lags behind the president in national polling.
Somewhat surprisingly, it is Ron Paul who is on the rise and he is now basically tied with Obama in national polling. It’s interesting that the two candidates the right-wing Christian conservatives hate the most are now leading in the fight for the nomination for the Republican Party. This leads one to wonder what type of sea-change a Mitt Romney/Ron Paul ticket could have on the Republican mindset. By combining their Libertarian and fiscal conservative constituencies, they could finally break the strangle hold Christian Conservatives have held over the party for decades.
And though President Obama seems to have done his level best to demoralize his base with a long line of backtracks, broken promises, and cave-ins to the Republicans throughout his short tenure as president, there are still two very powerful factors that favor Obama’s re-election. The first being money. Face it, elections are a rich man’s game, and Obama has more campaign cash than any other candidate. The second factor is incumbency. Recent political history in the US makes clear that Americans, for the most part, prefer the devil they know over the devil they don’t. Remember, even after all the wars, power-grabs, and political scandals, George W Bush was re-elected. Fasten your seat belts it’s going to be a bumpy election season.